“Simpson's paradox (Simpson 1951; Blyth 1972), first encountered by Pearson in 1899 (Aldrich 1995), refers to the phenomenon whereby an event C increases the probability of E in a given population p and, at the same time, decreases the probability of E in every subpopulation of p.”
Source: Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference, 2000, p. 1
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Judea Pearl9
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