“Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients — and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Source: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007), p. 149

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 196

Lebanese-American essayist, scholar, statistician, former t… 1960

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“Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients — and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish.”

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