“Mr. Holmes receives a telephone call from his neighbor Dr. Watson who states that he hears the sound of a burglar alarm from the direction of of Mr. Holmes' house. While preparing to rush home, Mr. Holmes recalls that Dr. Watson is known to be a tasteless practical joker…”

—  Judea Pearl

Source: Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference, 1988, p. 42: Example of an uncertain evidence

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Judea Pearl9
Computer scientist 1936

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