“Apple is balancing on a knife edge. I think we're looking at the end stage of a successful technology disruption on the classic pattern. The question is no longer whether Android can be stopped, but when Apple's market share will fall off a cliff. I think that could easily happen as soon as the next 90 days.”

— Eric S. Raymond

The Smartphone Wars: multicarrier breakout fail http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3152 in Armed and Dangerous (21 April 2011)

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Eric S. Raymond 22

American computer programmer, author, and advocate for the … 1957

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“[Google's] coming blend of Android and Chrome, coupled with Apple's move to emulate Surface, could result in a devastating outcome for Apple. … I'm reading rumors that Apple is creating an Amazon Echo clone and I think it will be the world's next Zune. Ironically, this would likely make Ballmer really happy because the ghost of Sun Tzu will stop slapping him around and start focusing on Tim Cook.”

Rob Enderle (1954) American financial analyst

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“Android continues to stomp its competition flat. Even the post-Jobs Apple can't stem the tide; it's pretty close to the 10% niche market share I predicted back in 2009 already, with no sign that trend will or can be reversed.”

Eric S. Raymond (1957) American computer programmer, author, and advocate for the open source movement

The Smartphone Wars: Nokia gives it up for Microsoft http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5039 in Armed and Dangerous (3 September 2013)

“With phones moving to technologies such as Apple Pay, an unwillingness to assure security could create a Target-like exposure that wipes Apple out of the market.”

Rob Enderle (1954) American financial analyst

How to Spot a Tech Company That's About to Lose http://cio.com/article/2686157/leadership-management/how-to-spot-a-tech-company-thats-about-to-lose.html in CIO (19 September 2014)

“I think [the Vista fiasco] will allow [Apple] to survive for a bit longer.”

Clayton M. Christensen (1952–2020) Mormon academic

Rebutting Clayton Christensen on Apple's 'Troubled' Future http://seekingalpha.com/article/5633-rebutting-clayton-christensen-on-apples-troubled-future-aapl-msft-dell in Seeking Alpha (11 January 2006)
2000s

“So the people using the Android operating system are now Motorola, Samsung, LG. And they are killing Apple: now, Android accounts for about 80 percent of the market.”

Clayton M. Christensen (1952–2020) Mormon academic

"Disruptive Genius" in Harvard Magazine (July-August 2014) http://harvardmagazine.com/2014/07/disruptive-genius
2010s

“All the consumer market mojo is with Apple and to a lesser extent BlackBerry. And yet, the real market momentum with operators and the real market momentum with device manufacturers seems to primarily be with Windows Mobile and Android.”

Steve Ballmer (1956) American businessman who was the chief executive officer of Microsoft

Ballmer sees Mac as a main competitor, iPhone as just buzz http://appleinsider.com/articles/09/02/24/ballmer_sees_mac_as_a_main_competitor_iphone_as_just_buzz.html in AppleInsider (24 February 2009)
2000s

“The numbers make it clear that the future of [Apple] is no longer in its consumer products. The fix? Apple should release a version of iOS for non-Apple devices. This suggestion will seem like heresy to the brand's loyalists, but it may be necessary for the success of the company. … Without expanding its operating system, the future looks bleak for Apple.”

Vivek Wadhwa American academic

Why Apple needs to liberate iOS http://venturebeat.com/2016/07/27/why-apple-needs-to-liberate-ios in VentureBeat (27 July 2016)

“I still have no desire to own [an Apple Watch], or even any desire to go to the Apple store and look at one or hold one in my hand. … The only question, it seems to me, is this: At what point can Apple Watch be declared a swing and a miss?”

Daniel Lyons (1960) American writer

I can’t get excited about the Apple Watch http://goodreads.com/author_blog_posts/8481697-i-can-t-get-excited-about-the-apple-watch in Goodreads (3 June 2015)

“The transition from proprietary architecture to open modular architecture just happens over and over again. It happened in the personal computer. Although it didn’t kill Apple’s computer business, it relegated Apple to the status of a minor player. … You also see modularity organized around the Android operating system that is growing much faster than the iPhone. So I worry that modularity will do its work on Apple.”

Clayton M. Christensen (1952–2020) Mormon academic

"Why Clayton Christensen Worries About Apple" in Forbes (7 May 2012) http://forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/05/07/why-clayton-christensen-worries-about-apple
2010s

“[Apple] needs the support of the U. S. government in the way that BlackBerry has the support of the Canadian government. If not, it needs to think about moving phone leadership and operations to a country that will supply it with that defensive support. If it doesn't do this soon, it will eventually have its phones compromised and that could be the end of much of Apple's iPhone business.”

Rob Enderle (1954) American financial analyst

Apple vs. BlackBerry vs. The FBI vs. Bill Gates http://itbusinessedge.com/blogs/unfiltered-opinion/apple-vs.-blackberry-vs.-the-fbi-vs.-bill-gates.html in IT Business Edge (1 March 2016)

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