“Believing you’re good at something just because you do it—without any information that you’re doing it well—is indeed irrational.”

— Robyn Dawes

Source: Everyday Irrationality: How Pseudo-Scientists, Lunatics, and the Rest of Us Systematically Fail to Think Rationally (2001), Chapter 6, “Three Specific Irrationalities of Probabilistic Judgment” (p. 106)

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Robyn Dawes11

American psychologist 1936–2010

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