The Notebooks of Leonardo Da Vinci (1938), XVII Flight
“The easiest way in which one can put unintentional strains on the enemy is to have a force which looks "trigger-happy." The one circumstance under which almost all Soviet experts agree the Russians might strike is the one in which they feel they are anticipating a strike by us. It will be difficult for them to read our intentions. They will doubtless err on the side of caution. But it is not clear which side will look cautious, particularly if there is a crisis which creates apprehension. It will add a real element of stability if our posture is such that we do not look as if we have to be "trigger-happy" in order to survive. This is an important reason for not relying solely on quick reaction as a protection and for not having forces so vulnerable that we could lose most of them from a Russian first strike. Under some circumstances our vulnerability to a Russian first strike would both tempt the Russians to initiate a war and at the same time compel them, because they might feel that we would be tempted to pre empt for our own protection. If we are sufficiently vulnerable they might find it impossible to believe that we were willing, in this crisis to rely on their good will, morality; caution, or sense of responsibility as a protection.”
The Magnum Opus; On Thermonuclear War
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Herman Kahn 27
American futurist 1922–1983Related quotes
"On Freedom" (1940), p. 12 http://books.google.com/books?id=Q1UxYzuI2oQC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA12#v=onepage&q&f=false
1950s, Out of My Later Years (1950)
Rep. Ron DeSantis on refugee debate: 'Err on side of protecting the American people' http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2015/11/27/rep-ron-desantis-on-refugee-debate-err-on-side-protecting-american-people.html (November 26, 2015)
“There are circumstances under which the anomalous should be courted. Ignorance is one of them.”
Part 2, Chapter 7 (p. 123)
Today We Choose Faces (1973)
Recalling "what an old tutor of a college said to one of his pupils" April 30, 1773, p. 217
Life of Samuel Johnson (1791), Vol II
Source: The Life of Samuel Johnson LL.D. Vol 2
Source: 1920s, Sceptical Essays (1928), Ch. 8: Eastern and Western Ideals of Happiness
Speech https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1886/jun/07/second-reading-adjourned-debate in the House of Commons (7 June 1886) introducing the Home Rule Bill
1880s
Source: Empire of the Sun (1984), p. 6
Context: Real war was the thousands of Chinese refugees dying of cholera in the sealed stockades at Pootung, and the bloody heads of Communist soldiers mounted on pikes along the Bund. In a real war no one knew which side he was on, and there were no flags or commentators or winners. In a real war there were no enemies.
“That which is wrong under one circumstance, may be, and often is, right under another.”
Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith, 256 (11 April 1842)
1840s
Context: That which is wrong under one circumstance, may be, and often is, right under another. God said, 'Thou shalt not kill'; at another time He said, 'Thou shalt utterly destroy.' This is the principle on which the government of heaven is conducted— by revelation adapted to the circumstances in which the children of the kingdom are placed. Whatever God requires is right, no matter what it is, although we may not see the reason thereof till long after the events transpire.