The Court and Character of King James I, commonly attributed to Anthony Weldon 
About James
                                    
“Fools pretend to foretell what will be the issue of things, and are laughed at for their awkward conjectures. Wise men being aware of the uncertainty of human aflairs, and having observed how small a matter often produces a great change, are modest in their conjectures.”
The Dignity of Human Nature (1754)
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James Burgh 49
British politician 1714–1775Related quotes
The Fourfold Treasure (1871) No. 991 http://www.spurgeon.org/sermons/0991.htm
“The small amount of foolery wise men have makes a great show.”
                                        
                                        conjecture 
in his  Nobel Lecture http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/chemistry/laureates/1996/curl-lecture.html, December 7, 1996, Dawn of the Fullerenes: Experiment and Conjecture
                                    
                                        
                                        Life of Marcus Cato 
Bartlett's Familiar Quotations, 10th ed. (1919)
                                    
Source: 1980s-1990s, "Theory construction as disciplined imagination," 1989, p. 516