Quotes from book
Ars Conjectandi

Name: Ars Conjectandi
Author: Jacob Bernoulli

Jacob BernoulliOriginal title Ars Conjectandi (Latin, 1713)

Ars Conjectandi is a book on combinatorics and mathematical probability written by Jacob Bernoulli and published in 1713, eight years after his death, by his nephew, Niklaus Bernoulli. The seminal work consolidated, apart from many combinatorial topics, many central ideas in probability theory, such as the very first version of the law of large numbers: indeed, it is widely regarded as the founding work of that subject. It also addressed problems that today are classified in the twelvefold way and added to the subjects; consequently, it has been dubbed an important historical landmark in not only probability but all combinatorics by a plethora of mathematical historians. The importance of this early work had a large impact on both contemporary and later mathematicians; for example, Abraham de Moivre.

“[P]robability as a measurable degree of certainty; necessity and chance; moral versus mathematical expectation; a priori an a posteriori probability; expectation of winning when players are divided according to dexterity; regard of all available arguments, their valuation, and their calculable evaluation; law of large numbers…”

Jacob Bernoulli book Ars Conjectandi

Ars Conjectandi (1713)

“The art of measuring, as precisely as possible, probabilities of things, with the goal that we would be able always to choose or follow in our judgments and actions that course, which will have been determined to be better, more satisfactory, safer or more advantageous.”

Jacob Bernoulli book Ars Conjectandi

Ars Conjectandi (1713) Chapter II, Part IV, defining the art of conjecture.