“The fact that this danger did not lead to a catastrophe before is no guarantee that it will not the next time, unless it is completely understood. When playing Russian roulette the fact that the first shot got off safely is little comfort for the next.”

— Richard Feynman

Rogers Commission Report (1986)
Context: The acceptance and success of these flights is taken as evidence of safety. But erosion and blow-by are not what the design expected. They are warnings that something is wrong. The equipment is not operating as expected, and therefore there is a danger that it can operate with even wider deviations in this unexpected and not thoroughly understood way. The fact that this danger did not lead to a catastrophe before is no guarantee that it will not the next time, unless it is completely understood. When playing Russian roulette the fact that the first shot got off safely is little comfort for the next. The origin and consequences of the erosion and blow-by were not understood. They did not occur equally on all flights and all joints; sometimes more, and sometimes less. Why not sometime, when whatever conditions determined it were right, still more leading to catastrophe?
In spite of these variations from case to case, officials behaved as if they understood it, giving apparently logical arguments to each other often depending on the "success" of previous flights.

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Richard Feynman 181

American theoretical physicist 1918–1988

Genevieve Cogman (1972) novelist and game designer

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[Judy, Batista, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C03E7D91338F93AA15752C0A9629C8B63&n=Top/News/Sports/Pro%20Football/National%20Football%20League/Green%20Bay%20Packers, PRO FOOTBALL: NOTEBOOK; Favre Knows That Time Is Quickly Running Out, The New York Times, January 29, 2004, 2007-11-12]

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Page 53
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15
Writing for the Theatre (1962)

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Thomas Hardy book The Return of the Native

Bk. I, ch. 1
The Return of the Native (1878)

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Malala Yousafzai (1997) Pakistani children's education activist

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Pete Doherty (1979) English musician, writer, actor, poet and artist

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“If I understood you well, you are telling me: Next time.”

René Lévesque (1922–1987) Quebec politician

Concession speech, 1980 Quebec referendum, http://en.wikipedia.org/upload/b/ba/Rene_Levesque%2C_Si_je_vous_ai_bien_compris.wav ( http://archives.radio-canada.ca/politique/provincial_territorial/clips/4212/

“The fact that this danger did not lead to a catastrophe before is no guarantee that it will not the next time, unless it is completely understood. When playing Russian roulette the fact that the first shot got off safely is little comfort for the next.”

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Richard Feynman 181

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