“The transition from proprietary architecture to open modular architecture just happens over and over again. It happened in the personal computer. Although it didn’t kill Apple’s computer business, it relegated Apple to the status of a minor player. … You also see modularity organized around the Android operating system that is growing much faster than the iPhone. So I worry that modularity will do its work on Apple.”

— Clayton M. Christensen

"Why Clayton Christensen Worries About Apple" in Forbes (7 May 2012) http://forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/05/07/why-clayton-christensen-worries-about-apple
2010s

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Clayton M. Christensen 23

Mormon academic 1952–2020

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“So the people using the Android operating system are now Motorola, Samsung, LG. And they are killing Apple: now, Android accounts for about 80 percent of the market.”

Clayton M. Christensen (1952–2020) Mormon academic

"Disruptive Genius" in Harvard Magazine (July-August 2014) http://harvardmagazine.com/2014/07/disruptive-genius
2010s

“Once again, Apple has seized the early lead, launching a revolutionary product that is taking the world by storm. … In its short life, Google's Android operating system has captivated developers and stolen mindshare from Apple… [Apple] is coming under increasing scrutiny for being a domineering control freak hell-bent on secretly undermining its competitors … the movie is starting the same way. And so far, at least, Apple is showing no signs of doing anything differently.”

Henry Blodget (1966) American equity research analyst

Hey, Apple, Wake Up — It's Happening Again http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-hey-apple-wake-up-it-2010-1 in Business Insider (5 January 2010)

“Android and the DROID X are, warts and all, already neck and neck with the iPhone 4. It's scary to think how one-sided this would be if Google just put a handful of UI experts on the [Android app] marketplace. Game over, Apple. Game over.”

Paul Thurrott (1966) American podcaster, author, and blogger

Droid Attack Spells Doom for iPhone http://winsupersite.com/article/mobile-computing-devices/droid-attack-spells-doom-for-iphone in Paul Thurrott's Supersite For Windows (21 September 2010)

“Given that background, I was interested in what Steve Jobs might say about the future of Apple. His survival strategy for Apple, for all its skill and drama, was not going to propel Apple into the future. At that moment in time, Apple had less than 4 percent of the personal computer market. The de facto standard was Windows-Intel and there seemed to be no way for Apple to do more than just hang on to a tiny niche.
In the summer of 1998, I got an opportunity to talk with Jobs again. I said, "Steve, this turnaround at Apple has been impressive. But everything we know about the PC business says that Apple cannot really push beyond a small niche position. The network effects are just too strong to upset the Wintel standard. So what are you trying to do in the longer term? What is the strategy?"”

Richard Rumelt (1942) American economist

He did not attack my argument. He didn’t agree with it, either. He just smiled and said, "I am going to wait for the next big thing."
Source: Good Strategy Bad Strategy, 2011, p. 14; Similar story in Rumelt (2007)

“This monograph is about the current status of the faculty psychology program; not so much its evidential status (which I take to be, for the most part, an open question ) as what the program is and where it does, and doesn't, seem natural to try to apply it. Specifically I want to do the following things: (1) distinguish the general claim that there are psychological faculties from a particular version of that claim, which I shall call the modularity thesis; (2) enumerate some of the properties that modular cognitive systems are likely to exhibit in virtue of their modularity; and (3) consider whether it is possible to formulate any plausible hypothesis about which mental processes are likely to be the modular ones. Toward the end of the discussion, I'll also try to do something by way of (4) disentangling the faculty jmodularity issues from what I'll call the thesis of Epistemic Boundedness: the idea that there are endogenously determined constraints on the kinds of problems that human beings can solve, hence on the kinds of things that we can know.”

Jerry Fodor (1935–2017) American philosopher

Source: Modularity of Mind (1983), p. 1-2

“The computer division of Apple will eventually become a genuine albatross around the company's neck. So it's better off as a standalone company focused on computers.”

John C. Dvorak (1952) US journalist and radio broadcaster

Apple Should Spin Off the Macintosh - Making a separate company for MacOS PCs is smart for all involved http://pcmag.com/commentary/345453/apple-should-spin-off-the-macintosh in PC Magazine (22 June 2016)
2010s

“Then, in 1998, I had the chance to talk with Steve Jobs after he’d come back and turned Apple around. I was there to help Telecom Italia try to do a deal with Apple, but after that business was completed I couldn’t help asking a question. “Steve,” I said, “this turnaround at Apple has been impressive. But everything we know about the personal-computer business says that Apple will always have a small niche position. The network externalities are just too strong to upset the de facto “Wintel” standard. So what are you trying to do? What’s the longer-term strategy?”
He didn’t agree or disagree with my assessment of the market. He just smiled and said, “I am going to wait for the next big thing.””

Richard Rumelt (1942) American economist

About strategy starts with identifying changes, and companies taking position (2)
"McKinsey Quarterly interview," 2007

“My opinion is that the only two computer companies that are software-driven are Apple and NeXT, and I wonder about Apple.”

Steve Jobs (1955–2011) American entrepreneur and co-founder of Apple Inc.

As quoted in Fortune (26 August 1991)
1990s

“[Apple] needs the support of the U. S. government in the way that BlackBerry has the support of the Canadian government. If not, it needs to think about moving phone leadership and operations to a country that will supply it with that defensive support. If it doesn't do this soon, it will eventually have its phones compromised and that could be the end of much of Apple's iPhone business.”

Rob Enderle (1954) American financial analyst

Apple vs. BlackBerry vs. The FBI vs. Bill Gates http://itbusinessedge.com/blogs/unfiltered-opinion/apple-vs.-blackberry-vs.-the-fbi-vs.-bill-gates.html in IT Business Edge (1 March 2016)

“Apple's big weakness is its control-freak nature and insistence that there is only one way to make a smart phone. No matter how many carriers sign on to carry the iPhone, in the long run, Apple has again set itself up to be a niche player in smartphones, just as it is in PCs.”

Daniel Lyons (1960) American writer

The Verizon iPhone Is Too Late http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/12/the-verizon-iphone-is-too-late.html in Newsweek (12 January 2011)

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Clayton M. Christensen 23

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