“Subjective confidence in a judgement is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that this judgement is correct. Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.”

— Daniel Kahneman , book Thinking, Fast and Slow

Source: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 20, "The illusion of validity", page 212 (ISBN 9780141033570).

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Daniel Kahneman 51

Israeli-American psychologist 1934

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