George E. P. Box: Modeling

George E. P. Box was British statistician. Explore interesting quotes on modeling.

George E. P. Box: 28 quotes1 like

“All models are wrong; some models are useful.”

For instance in George E. P. Box, William Hunter and Stuart Hunter, Statistics for Experimenters, second edition, 2005, page 440. See "All models are wrong".

“For the theory-practice iteration to work, the scientist must be, as it were, mentally ambidextrous; fascinated equally on the one hand by possible meanings, theories, and tentative models to be induced from data and the practical reality of the real world, and on the other with the factual implications deducible from tentative theories, models and hypotheses.”

George E. P. Box

Source: Science and Statistics (1976), p. 792

“An innovative discussion of building empirical models and the fitting of surfaces to data. Introduces the general philosophy of response surface methodology, and details least squares for response surface work, factorial designs at two levels, fitting second-order models, adequacy of estimation and the use of transformation, occurrence and elucidation of ridge systems, and more. Some results are presented for the first time. Includes real-life exercises, nearly all with solutions.”

George E. P. Box

Introduction, book summary
Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces (1987)

“Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a "correct" one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.”

George E. P. Box

Source: Science and Statistics (1976), p. 792

“Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful.”

George E. P. Box

Source: Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces (1987), p. 74

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”

George E. P. Box

Source: Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces (1987), p. 424,

“A mechanistic model has the following advantages:
1. It contributes to our scientiﬁc understanding of the phenomenon under study.
2. It usually provides a better basis for extrapolation (at least to conditions worthy of further experimental investigation if not through the entire range of all input variables).
3. It tends to be parsimonious (i. e, frugal) in the use of parameters and to provide better estimates of the response”

George E. P. Box

Source: Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces (1987), p. 13-14 as cited in: Andrew Odlyzko (2010) Social Networks and Mathematical Models http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/ecra.westland.pdf Electronic Commerce Research and Applications 9(1): 26-28 (2010)