At an event in Araçatuba on 23 August 2018. Bolsonaro diz que se eleito 'bandidagem vai morrer' porque União não repassará recursos para direitos humanos https://g1.globo.com/sp/sao-jose-do-rio-preto-aracatuba/noticia/2018/08/23/bolsonaro-diz-que-bandidagem-vai-morrer-em-seu-governo-porque-uniao-nao-repassara-recursos-para-direitos-humanos.ghtml. G1 (23 August 2018).
“This is politicking, not predicting.”
"Why Speculate?" https://web.archive.org/web/20050328084634/http://www.crichton-official.com/speeches/speeches_quote03.html - speech at the International Leadership Forum, La Jolla, California (26 April 2002)
Context: I want to mention in passing that punditry has undergone a subtle change over the years. In the old days, commentators such as Eric Sevareid spent most of their time putting events in a context, giving a point of view about what had already happened. Telling what they thought was important or irrelevant in the events that had already taken place. This is of course a legitimate function of expertise in every area of human knowledge.
But over the years the punditic thrust has shifted away from discussing what has happened, to discussing what may happen. And here the pundits have no benefit of expertise at all. Worse, they may, like the Sunday politicians, attempt to advance one or another agenda by predicting its imminent arrival or demise. This is politicking, not predicting.
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Michael Crichton 121
American author, screenwriter, film producer 1942–2008Related quotes
Source: The Inefficient Stock Market - What Pays Off And Why (1999), Chapter 5, Predicting Future Stock Returns with the Expected-Return Factor Model, p. 56
Source: The Rise of Endymion (1997), Chapter 1 (p. 10)
“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history”
Source: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
“Our tendency to think that we're not predictable is probably one of our more predictable traits.”
TV Series and Specials (Includes DVDs), Trick of the Mind (2004–2006)
1890s, The Path of the Law (1897)
Context: When we study law we are not studying a mystery but a well-known profession. We are studying what we shall want in order to appear before judges, or to advise people in such a way as to keep them out of court. The reason why it is a profession, why people will pay lawyers to argue for them or to advise them, is that in societies like ours the command of the public force is intrusted to the judges in certain cases, and the whole power of the state will be put forth, if necessary, to carry out their judgments and decrees. People want to know under what circumstances and how far they will run the risk of coming against what is so much stronger than themselves, and hence it becomes a business to find out when this danger is to be feared. The object of our study, then, is prediction, the prediction of the incidence of the public force through the instrumentality of the courts.
Source: Everyday Irrationality: How Pseudo-Scientists, Lunatics, and the Rest of Us Systematically Fail to Think Rationally (2001), Chapter 6, “Three Specific Irrationalities of Probabilistic Judgment” (p. 97)
p, 125
What Mad Pursuit (1988)