“Android continues to stomp its competition flat. Even the post-Jobs Apple can't stem the tide; it's pretty close to the 10% niche market share I predicted back in 2009 already, with no sign that trend will or can be reversed.”

— Eric S. Raymond

The Smartphone Wars: Nokia gives it up for Microsoft http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5039 in Armed and Dangerous (3 September 2013)

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Eric S. Raymond 22

American computer programmer, author, and advocate for the … 1957

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“Apple is balancing on a knife edge. I think we're looking at the end stage of a successful technology disruption on the classic pattern. The question is no longer whether Android can be stopped, but when Apple's market share will fall off a cliff. I think that could easily happen as soon as the next 90 days.”

Eric S. Raymond (1957) American computer programmer, author, and advocate for the open source movement

The Smartphone Wars: multicarrier breakout fail http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3152 in Armed and Dangerous (21 April 2011)

“So the people using the Android operating system are now Motorola, Samsung, LG. And they are killing Apple: now, Android accounts for about 80 percent of the market.”

Clayton M. Christensen (1952–2020) Mormon academic

"Disruptive Genius" in Harvard Magazine (July-August 2014) http://harvardmagazine.com/2014/07/disruptive-genius
2010s

“Microsoft fully understands it can't beat Apple, Amazon or Google by chasing them, but it can beat them if it both revisits its old embrace and extend strategy, and then pulls a Steve Jobs to change the market.”

Rob Enderle (1954) American financial analyst

Microsoft Build 2015: Final Thoughts http://itbusinessedge.com/blogs/unfiltered-opinion/microsoft-build-2015-final-thoughts.html in IT Business Edge (1 May 2015)

“All the consumer market mojo is with Apple and to a lesser extent BlackBerry. And yet, the real market momentum with operators and the real market momentum with device manufacturers seems to primarily be with Windows Mobile and Android.”

Steve Ballmer (1956) American businessman who was the chief executive officer of Microsoft

Ballmer sees Mac as a main competitor, iPhone as just buzz http://appleinsider.com/articles/09/02/24/ballmer_sees_mac_as_a_main_competitor_iphone_as_just_buzz.html in AppleInsider (24 February 2009)
2000s

“Given that background, I was interested in what Steve Jobs might say about the future of Apple. His survival strategy for Apple, for all its skill and drama, was not going to propel Apple into the future. At that moment in time, Apple had less than 4 percent of the personal computer market. The de facto standard was Windows-Intel and there seemed to be no way for Apple to do more than just hang on to a tiny niche.
In the summer of 1998, I got an opportunity to talk with Jobs again. I said, "Steve, this turnaround at Apple has been impressive. But everything we know about the PC business says that Apple cannot really push beyond a small niche position. The network effects are just too strong to upset the Wintel standard. So what are you trying to do in the longer term? What is the strategy?"”

Richard Rumelt (1942) American economist

He did not attack my argument. He didn’t agree with it, either. He just smiled and said, "I am going to wait for the next big thing."
Source: Good Strategy Bad Strategy, 2011, p. 14; Similar story in Rumelt (2007)

“I hate to say it but Apple may end up reliving [with iPhone] its nightmare experience in the personal computer market — that is, arriving ahead of everyone else (in 1984) with a device that was really cool and really well built and really showed what the platform could do, but then keeping everything closed and thereby ending up a niche player.”

Daniel Lyons (1960) American writer

Thoughts on G1 and Apple http://realdanlyons.com/blog/2008/09/23/thoughts-on-g1-and-apple in RealDanLyons.com (23 September 2008)

“Apple's fans are more interested in spending money than they are with facts. … That the lackluster iPhone 4S can sell so well in a market dominated by more capable Android handsets (not to mention Windows Phones) only bolsters that notion.”

Paul Thurrott (1966) American podcaster, author, and blogger

Apple Sells 4 Million iPhone 4S Handsets at Launch http://windowsitpro.com/windows/apple-sells-4-million-iphone-4s-handsets-launch in Windows IT Pro (17 October 2011)

“Android and the DROID X are, warts and all, already neck and neck with the iPhone 4. It's scary to think how one-sided this would be if Google just put a handful of UI experts on the [Android app] marketplace. Game over, Apple. Game over.”

Paul Thurrott (1966) American podcaster, author, and blogger

Droid Attack Spells Doom for iPhone http://winsupersite.com/article/mobile-computing-devices/droid-attack-spells-doom-for-iphone in Paul Thurrott's Supersite For Windows (21 September 2010)

“Apple's big weakness is its control-freak nature and insistence that there is only one way to make a smart phone. No matter how many carriers sign on to carry the iPhone, in the long run, Apple has again set itself up to be a niche player in smartphones, just as it is in PCs.”

Daniel Lyons (1960) American writer

The Verizon iPhone Is Too Late http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/12/the-verizon-iphone-is-too-late.html in Newsweek (12 January 2011)

“Once again, Apple has seized the early lead, launching a revolutionary product that is taking the world by storm. … In its short life, Google's Android operating system has captivated developers and stolen mindshare from Apple… [Apple] is coming under increasing scrutiny for being a domineering control freak hell-bent on secretly undermining its competitors … the movie is starting the same way. And so far, at least, Apple is showing no signs of doing anything differently.”

Henry Blodget (1966) American equity research analyst

Hey, Apple, Wake Up — It's Happening Again http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-hey-apple-wake-up-it-2010-1 in Business Insider (5 January 2010)

“Android continues to stomp its competition flat. Even the post-Jobs Apple can't stem the tide; it's pretty close to the 10% niche market share I predicted back in 2009 already, with no sign that trend will or can be reversed.”

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