“The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.”
Paul A. Samuelson (1915–2009) American economist
Paul Samuelson (1966), quoted in: John C Bluedorn et al. Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions? (2013), p. 4
1950s–1970s
1992 Chairman's Letter http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1992.html <br class="br">Letters to Shareholders (1957 - 2012)
“The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.”
Paul A. Samuelson (1915–2009) American economist
Paul Samuelson (1966), quoted in: John C Bluedorn et al. Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions? (2013), p. 4
1950s–1970s
Warren Buffett (1930) American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist
2 November 1959
Letters to Shareholders (1957 - 2012)
Context: I make no attempt to forecast the general market — my efforts are devoted to finding undervalued securities. However, I do believe that widespread public belief in the Inevitability of profits from investments in stocks will lead to eventual trouble. Should this occur, prices, but not intrinsic values in my opinion, of even undervalued securities can be expected to be substantially affected.
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
John Kenneth Galbraith (1908–2006) American economist and diplomat
Though often attributed to Galbraith, as early as 1988 in U.S. News & World Report, the earliest publications of this statement, in The Bulletin (1984) and Reader's Digest (1985) attributes it to Ezra Solomon.
Misattributed
Donald J. Trump (1946) 45th President of the United States of America
2010s, 2016, September, First presidential debate (September 26, 2016)
Context: We have the worst revival of an economy since the Great Depression. And believe me: We're in a bubble right now. And the only thing that looks good is the stock market, but if you raise interest rates even a little bit, that's going to come crashing down.
Clive Staples Lewis The Chronicles of Narnia
The Silver Chair (1953), Ch. 16: The Healing of Harms
The Chronicles of Narnia (1950–1956)
Ludwig Wittgenstein (1889–1951) Austrian-British philosopher
Source: Culture and Value (1980), p. 17e
Otmar Issing (1936) German economist
Issing commenting the situation in Eurozone in 2016 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/architect-of-the-euro-now-says-it-is-a-house-of-cards-2016-10-19
Donald J. Trump (1946) 45th President of the United States of America
2016, September 2016, First presidential debate (September 26, 2016)
Richard Arnold Epstein (1927) American physicist
Source: The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (Revised Edition) 1977, Chapter Nine, Weighted Statistical Logic And Statistical Games, p. 295
Steve Keen (1953) Australian economist
Source: Debunking Economics - The Naked Emperor Of The Social Sciences (2001), Chapter 10, The Price Is Not Right, p. 216