Judea Pearl: Modeling

Judea Pearl is Computer scientist. Explore interesting quotes on modeling.
Judea Pearl: 18   quotes 0   likes

“A quantity Q(M) is identifiable, given a set of assumptions A, iffor any two models M1 and M2 that satisfy A, we have
P(M1) = P(M2) ⇒ Q(M1) = Q(M2)”

Judea Pearl

Source: Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference, 2000, p. 77 : cited in: Rick H. Hoyle (2014). Handbook of Structural Equation Modeling. p. 75
Hoyle (2014) further explained: In words, the functional details of M1 and M2 do not matter; what matters is that the assumptions in A (e.g. those encoded in the diagram) would constrain the variability of those details in such a way that equality of P's would entail equality of Q's. When this happens, Q depends on P only and should therefore be expressible in terms of the parameters of P. The section “Identification Using Graphs” will exemplify and operationalize this notion.

“Bayesian networks [is] a term coined in Pearl (1985) to emphasize three aspects: (1) the subjective nature of the input information; (2) the reliance on Bayes' conditioning as the basis of updating information; (3) the distinction between causal and evidential models of reasoning, a distinction that underscores Thomas Bayes' paper of 1763”

Judea Pearl

Source: Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference, 2000, p. 14

Nature

“Haavelmo was the first to recognize the capacity of economic models to guide policies. This paper describes some of the barriers that Haavelmo’s ideas have had (and still have) to overcome, and lays out a logical framework that has evolved from Haavelmo’s insight and matured into a coherent and comprehensive account of the relationships between theory, data and policy questions. The mathematical tools that emerge from this framework now enable investigators to answer complex policy and counterfactual questions using simple routines, some by mere inspection of the model’s structure.”

Judea Pearl

Judea Pearl, "Trygve Haavelmo and the emergence of causal calculus." University of California Los Angeles, Computer Science Department, CA. 2012.

Mathematics , Idea , Question