Daniel Kahneman idézet (52 idézet, oldal 2)

“The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.”

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Daniel Kahneman

Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence, The New York Times, 19 October 2011, 15 May 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0,
"Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence" (2011)

“Caring for people often takes the form of concern for the quality of their stories, not for their feelings. Indeed, we can be deeply moved even by events that change the stories of people already dead. We feel pity for a man who died believing in his wife’s love for him when we hear that she had a lover for many years and stayed with her husband only for his money. We pity the husband although he had lived a happy life. We feel the humiliation of a scientist who made a discovery that was proved false after she died, although she did not feel the humiliation. Most important, we all care intensely for the narrative of our own life and very much want it to be a good story, with a decent hero.”

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Daniel Kahneman

Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think (Part 4): Daniel Kahneman, bloomberg.com, 24 October 2011, 15 May 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/bias-blindness-and-how-we-truly-think-part-4-daniel-kahneman.html,
"Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think" (2011)

“Subjective confidence in a judgement is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that this judgement is correct. Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 20, "The illusion of validity", page 212 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“There is a deep gap between our thinking about statistics and our thinking about individual cases.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 15, "Causes trump statistics", page 174 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person -- you already feel fortunate. Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference; they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders -- not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks. They are talented and they have been lucky, almost certainly luckier than they acknowledge.”

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Daniel Kahneman

Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think (Part 1): Daniel Kahneman, bloomberg.com, 24 October 2011, 15 May 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-24/bias-blindness-and-how-we-truly-think-part-1-daniel-kahneman.html,
"Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think" (2011)

“Many unfortunate human situations unfold […] where people who face very bad options take desperate gambles, accepting a high probability of making things worse in exchange for a small hope of avoiding a large loss. Risk taking of this king often turns manageable failures into disasters.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 29, "The fourfold pattern", pages 318-319 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“A recurrent theme of this book is that luck plays a large role in every story of success; it is almost always easy to identify a small change in the story that would have turned a remarkable achievement into a mediocre outcome.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Introduction, page 9 (ISBN 9780141033570).
Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)

“A plausible interpretation is that higher income is associated with a reduced ability to enjoy the small pleasures of life. […] There is a clear contrast between the effects of income on experienced well-being and in life satisfaction. Higher income brings with it higher satisfaction, well beyond the point at which it ceases to have any positive effect on experience. […] Life satisfaction is not a flawed measure of their experienced well-being, as I thought some years ago. It is something else entirely.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 37, "Experienced well-being", page 397 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“Although humans are not irrational, they often need help to make more accurate judgements and better decisions. […] [They] also need protection from others who deliberately exploit their weaknesses […].”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Conclusions, pages 411-413 (ISBN 9780141033570).
Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)

“Unless there is an obvious reason to do otherwise, most of use passively accept decision problems as they are framed and therefore rarely have an opportunity to discover the extent to which our preferences are frame-bound rather than reality-bound.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 34, "Frames and reality", page 367 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“The lesson is clear: estimates of causes of death are warped by media coverage. […] The world in our heads is not a precise replica of reality; our expectations about the frequency of events are distorted by the prevalence and emotional intensity of the messages to which we are exposed.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 13, "Availability, emotion, and risk", page 138 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“He weights losses about twice as much as gains, which is normal.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 26, "Prospect theory", page 288 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“It took Francis Galton several years to figure out that correlation and regression are not two concepts – they are different perspectives on the same concept. The general rule is straightforward but has surprising consequences: whenever the correlation between two scores is imperfect, there will be regression to the mean.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 17, "Regression to the mean", page 181 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 7, "A machine for jumping to conclusions", page 87 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“A rare event will be overweighted if it specifically attracts attention. […] And when there is no overweighting, there will be neglect.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 30, "Rare events", page 333 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“There is no evidence that risk takers in the economic domain have an unusual appetite for gambles on high stakes; they are merely less aware of risks than more timid people are.”

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Daniel Kahneman könyv Thinking, Fast and Slow

Forrás: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), Chapter 24, "The engine of capitalism", page 263 (ISBN 9780141033570).

“We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their intuition. In a world rife with illusions of validity and skill, can we trust them? How do we distinguish the justified confidence of experts from the sincere overconfidence of professionals who do not know they are out of their depth? We can believe an expert who admits uncertainty but cannot take expressions of high confidence at face value. As I first learned on the obstacle field, people come up with coherent stories and confident predictions even when they know little or nothing. Overconfidence arises because people are often blind to their own blindness.”

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Daniel Kahneman

Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence, The New York Times, 19 October 2011, 15 May 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0,
"Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence" (2011)

“An experiment about your next vacation will allow you to observe your attitude to your experiencing self: At the end of the vacation, all pictures and videos will be destroyed. Furthermore, you will swallow a potion that will wipe out all your memories of the vacation. How would this affect your vacation plans? How much would you be willing to pay for it, relative to a normally memorable vacation? My impression is that the elimination of memories greatly reduces the value of the experience.Imagine a painful operation during which you will scream in pain and beg the surgeon to stop. However, you are promised an amnesia-inducing drug that will wipe out any memory of the episode. Here again, my observation is that most people are remarkably indifferent to the pains of their experiencing self. Some say they don’t care at all. Others share my feeling, which is that I feel pity for my suffering self but not more than I would feel for a stranger in pain.I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.”

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Daniel Kahneman

Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think (Part 4): Daniel Kahneman, bloomberg.com, 24 October 2011, 15 May 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/bias-blindness-and-how-we-truly-think-part-4-daniel-kahneman.html,
"Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think" (2011)